Thursday, August 1, 2019

2020 Democratic Primary Debate 2 Part 2

In the first primary debate the second night had more discussion of technology than the first night. The same could be expected of tonight's debate. Unfortunately there was even less discussion of technology than last night's candidate slate. Nonetheless this blog will look at what was brought up in the debate.
The topic of climate change brought about the most discussion of technology in tonight's debate. Joe Biden proposed five hundred thousand charging stations would be built in his administration. The development of charging stations is meant to incentivize the changeover to electric vehicles. The problem with this proposal is that it is not the purview of the federal government to install charging stations. Even a proposal that would be within the powers of the federal government would need to be approved upon by a climate change denying Republican arm of congress. He would double the amount of offshore wind. Offshore wind consists of turbines that are built with posts that are set into the seabed. Power cables connect them to the grid back on solid ground.Offshore wind takes advantage of the reduced friction of the sea to get a very consistent quality wind to power the turbines. These wind turbines are typically built far enough offshore that even with diameters approaching 400 feet they are not visible from the coastline. Currently the only offshore wind in the United States is off Cape Cod. There has been interest and initial development of plans to build turbines off Long Island. Most of the regulatory hurdles that are associated with wind turbines are state and local laws. At the state level approval for these turbines typically is associated with regulations and laws controlling the power generation development. States with deregulated power markets may be easier since the power generation and distribution are separate businesses. Most of the opposition comes from people complaining about the view on their property being damaged by the wind turbines. The most likely action that Biden could take to accelerate the development of offshore wind would be to use existing federal laws to override state and local laws. This risks angering residents and there could be real backlash at the ballot box.
He also stated that his climate change plan would produce 10 million jobs. As stated in the last blog post the estimation of job creation is somewhat suspect as automation may end up doing the lion share of the work. In addition very little additional information was provided as to how the jobs will be created.
Kristen Gillibrand proposed putting a price on carbon. Pricing carbon is a very broad statement. Carbon pricing is considered a mechanism for forcing capitalist systems to move away from fossil fuel use. The risks with setting the price of carbon is setting an adequate price. If the price is too high then the economy could suffer from severe shock. This could result in citizens revolting against the governments policies. If the price of carbon is set too low then carbon emissions will not be reduced to the level that is intended. An even bigger problem with carbon pricing is that opponents of climate change will make it exceedingly difficult for the rate to increase to achieve greater reductions. In the current political climate passing a carbon pricing bill will be exceedingly difficult. Mechanisms that would allow for the price to increase would be opposed and firm price would be set and impossible to increase.
She also proposed that we get into a green energy race. We, the U.S., would compete with China and other countries to produce green technologies. The innovation spurred on by this race would achieve the necessary carbon net zero by 2050. The reality is that we are currently in a green energy race. China is currently the leader in solar panel development, electric car manufacturing, and many other green technologies. China's five year plan includes significant investment in developing technologies of the future. This includes electrification of cars, solar panels, and other green technologies. In reality the United States is behind in the green technology race. Gillibrand didn't propose any policy prescriptions for winning or even competing in the green energy race in her answer.
The other big technology point that was referenced during the debate was automation. Andrew Yang mentioned it several times in answers on a multitude of topics. This probably worked really well for a debate held in Detroit. Detroit was and is built primarily on the automotive industry that has suffered from plenty of job losses over the last 30 plus years. Andrew Yang in many ways made automation the bogey-man. He does have his freedom dividend proposal to counter the growth of automation in our economy.