Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Reviewing Yesterday's results

In an ideal world technological development is not affected by elections for new representatives. Sadly the influence of government on the growth of certain technology markets has been historically been significant. Thus I think that it is important that this blog look at the results of yesterday's midterm elections and try to understand what impact it will have on technology for the next two years.
Yesterday's results were a massive change in the make up of congress. In both chambers of the U.S. Congress the Democrats took significant losses to their membership. The house of Representatives saw a shift of 60 votes and the Republicans regaining control. In the Senate the Democrats have a razor thin majority with no clear way to defeat a filibuster on their major issues. The key question is what will happen to major political issues that effect technology.
Some issues that I have written about will be completely unchanged because the key decision makers are presidentially nominated and already in place. Net neutrality and Broadband policies of the Obama presidency are not about to change. The broadband iniative may be slowed down due to the necessity of federal legislation that Republicans may oppose and any government spending that is proposed to implement the plan. I think that while there will be initial skepticism this concept will be eventually supported by both parties as it will lead to job creation and many other unintended benefits.
I wrote about the need for spectrum for new and growing technologies a while ago. This is an area where the FCC will be making decisions independent and insulated from congressional interference. This is good since sensible and complicated decisions have to be made in the near future to allow for more growth in the wireless device industry and prevent interference. We can chalk up this essential protection of decisionmaking in the people's best interest to lawmakers with plenty of foresight into the possible battles in the halls of congress.
Climate change legislation in the US Congress is dead for all intensive purposes. The combination of more Republicans and Conservative Democrats from fossil fuel producing states have made politically impossible. This is too bad since the technology sector with the greatest growth is in renewable energy and associated synergistic technologies. This means that technologies like biofuels, solar electricity, wind energy, and smart grid technologies will be delayed in their implementation in the United States economy. The good news is that some significant players which are major industrial multi-nationals will not change their game plan with the changing political landscape. The good news is that California's landmark climate change legislation survived an initiative that would have effectively repealed it for years or more likely permanently. Clearly the voters saw this as an important issue as did both gubernatorial candidates.
The real loser from the outcome of the election was the national laboratories and engineering institutions. There funding is heavily dependent on allocations from the federal budget which is decided in congress. With Republicans in charge of the house spending will be reduced for scientific studies. This is too bad as NASA and several of the national laboratories have led to the development of many technologies we take for granted today. Republicans have promised limited government and reductions in spending so we can expect that too happen.
There are several things that we don't know about the next congress which may change what I am prognosticating. Will innovation be a central theme for the US recovery? Will Republicans see technology as a way to strengthen American national security directly and indirectly? We have two years to find out the answers to these questions.

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